Bottom Line Up Front [BLUF]: Yes, but caution.
Here is the original statement that prompted this blog post:
The chance that three fourth cousins will all share the same matching segment is practically zero.
A bold statement – repeated several times – that has implications for Triangulated Groups. It appears this was part of the education material provided by AncestryDNA for their DNA Circles feature [Hat Tip to Debbie Kennett – the material is no longer online].
This means you and two 4C Matches sharing the same matching segment [all three of you descending from 3 different children of the Common Ancestor].
Mitigating factors:
1. Shared DNA segments in a Triangulated Group (TG) are rarely “the *same* matching segment”. We are almost always talking about overlapping segments of different sizes. So that gives some wiggle room. Maybe the odds are just small (not practically zero) with a group of different sized segments in a TG.
2. As Debbie pointed out to me, these were simulations by Ancestry, using “perfect” data. In genetic genealogy our data is usually somewhat messier than simulated data, so there is even more wiggle room. Maybe the odds are on the low end…
3. Another factor is that the data has grown substantially since the simulations were done for the Circles feature. The information has been removed.
The bottom line for me becomes: If you find 4C Matches in one TG from more than two other children of the Common Ancestor, take a closer look at it. It is possible, but there may be other factors at play.
Segment-ology CONCEPT – For Matches forming a TG (overlapping segments in a range), the odds decrease with each generation going back and with each additional child of the Common Ancestor. Take a critical look within TGs beyond 3C Matches spread over more than 2 other children. The odds are very small with Matches from 3 other children (total of 4 children). This is not a “rule”.
Important Note: This does not mean that we cannot have DNA Matches from 4 or more children. We can! Instead of a double negative let me say: We can have 4C Matches from more than 3 other children of the Common Ancestor – we can have 7C Matches from 5 other children of the CA. It just means that there is more than one segment (TG) involved. Over the different children, we should expect to see several TGs. We can have over a hundred Matches in a TG going back to 7XG grandparents, for example. We just need to carefully screen for the number of children per TG.
Takeaway: It’s hard to have a hard “rule” on this subject. However, it makes sense to pay attention to our data. The further back we go (in generations), the more constrained our options become.
I’m inviting discussion on this Segment-ology CONCEPT, and on your experience with TGs and numbers of Common Ancestor children.
[08E] Segment-ology: Can Three Fourth Cousins Share the Same Segment? By Jim Bartlett 20230812